14.09.2007 Russia, Moscow. CIS Economic Council session was held in the building of the Secretary of the CIS Defence Ministry Council.
Photo: Alexander Miridonov
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Necessary Informalities
// Dmitry Medvedev debuts at the CIS forum
Today St.-Petersburg hosts an unofficial CIS summit – the first one for Russia’s President Dmitry Medvedev. All the CIS heads of state are coming to the forum, but it doesn’t mean that everything has been going off that smooth in the CIS. Mr Medvedev will have to meet Georgian leader Mikhail Saakashvili, who hasn’t found common language with the former Russian President Vladimir Putin, and conduct tough negotiations with his Ukrainian opposite number Victor Yushchenko. Similarly, Moscow has a great many problems with Central Asian republics, which enthusiastically join energy projects devised by the West.
Summit of hopes
All the CIS Presidents are coming to the first Commonwealth summit for Dmitry Medvedev. You can refer the full list of participants to quite an achievement, because the leaders of the post-Soviet states seldom appear that disciplined. Last time the 100% attendance was reported at a similar unofficial CIS summit in Moscow, which was held in February and became Vladimir Putin’s farewell meeting with his counterparts in his capacity as President. Interestingly, at that summit Mr Putin introduced the then presidential nominee Dmitry Medvedev to the guests.
Today Mr Medvedev will have to receive the CIS leaders on his own (according to the information of Kommersant, Prime Minister Putin will be absent at the summit), and the forum will become a real baptism of fire for him. Moscow has been recently haunted by its failures at the post-Soviet space. For instance, the relations with Ukraine and Georgia striving for NATO membership have been escalated to the highest degree. The Russian government’s hard line on the obdurate republics has had a counter-effect: Kiev and Tbilisi only claim louder that there is no alternative to their joining the North Atlantic Alliance.
Ahead of the summit the sources of Kommersant with the Russian Security Council informed us that in St.-Petersburg Dmitry Medvedev will focus on the Ukrainian and Georgian issues. There are tête-à-tête negotiations with the Ukrainian and Georgian Presidents – Victor Yushchenko and Mikhail Saakashvili – on his agenda list. Russia’s Foreign Office and Security Council have been preparing the meetings for a couple of weeks. A high-ranking diplomat confessed to Kommersant, “The relations with Ukraine are a major headache, and we hope that the personal meeting of the two Presidents will redress the balance.”
As to the relations between Russia and Ukraine, the current Ukrainian government’s desire to join NATO and to get rid of Russia’s Black Sea fleet in the Crimea are the bone of contention. Kiev has repeatedly stated that it won’t prolong the treaty about the deployment of the Russian fleet in Sevastopol. More to the point, May 20 Victor Yushchenko signed a decree #463/2008, which suggests introducing a bill into the parliament within two months to suspend “the rule of international treaties” concerning the Russian Black Sea fleet’s deployment on the territory of Ukraine starting from 2017. Mr Yushchenko aims to create guarantees of the Russian fleet getting away from his country, whatever the government in Kiev.
Diplomats with the Russian Foreign Ministry are convinced that this act of Victor Yushchenko is even a more serious step in the NATO direction than his application to get the membership action plan. So, threatening Kiev with a possible breaking off of the treaty on friendship, Moscow hopes to resolve the fleet problem using carrots only. According to the information of Kommersant, in the course of his meeting with Victor Yushchenko (which is to last for an hour) Mr Medvedev will offer him more lucrative terms of the deployment of Russia’s ships: For example, an opportunity to raise the sum of land and mooring lease in the Crimea (now it amounts to some $100 mln annually).
Tbilisi also hopes that there will be a thaw in its relations with Moscow under the new Russian President. Georgia’s leader Mikhail Saakashvili has recently managed to have a telephone talk with his Russian counterpart and discuss the situation over the deployment of an extra contingent of Russia’s railroad construction troops in Abkhazia. The Georgian government believes it will be able to solve all the problems that have accumulated for years. But officials with the Russian Foreign Office told Kommersant that you shouldn’t expect any breakthrough in the Georgian direction. “They’ll have a 30-minute talk. It’ll be needed to establish personal relations, first of all. There was enmity between Putin and Saakashvili at the personal level, and the Georgian President would like to show his best and start it over once again,” a high-ranking diplomat told Kommersant.
Moldova’s President Vladimir Voronin wishes the new President would keep on with the line of his predecessor. The last months of Vladimir Putin’s ruling were marked with Moscow’s absolute approval of the reunification of Moldova and Transnistria. Now Mr Voronin is going to St.-Petersburg having the guarantees of Russia’s further support of his country’s unification.
Summit of problems
Ukraine and Georgia are not the only countries to disappoint Moscow. Dmitry Medvedev will have to put much effort in addressing problems on the Central Asian front. The Central Asian republics, and in particular those which have considerable deposits of carbohydrates, have recently demonstrated their willingness to take part in energy projects devised by the West. For example, Kazakhstan, which Dmitry Medvedev chose as the destination of his first overseas visit, has recently agreed to fill the so much disliked in Russia Baku-Tbilisi- Ceyhan pipeline with its oil. The other day Kazakhstan’s leader signed a law on assistance to the transportation of the Kazakh oil to international markets via this pipeline. And taking account of the prospect of Astana’s presidency in the OSCE in 2010, one can presume that Nazarbayev will keep on acting like that.
Uzbekistan is also heading for the West. Since the harsh suppression of the Andijan revolt in 2005 the Uzbek President Islom Karimov has been absolutely loyal to Moscow. But the USA and the EU, which punished Mr Karimov for the Andijan massacre with economic sanctions, are likely to overhaul their policy regarding this state. High-ranking American officials have frequently visited Tashkent, and this week Chief of the Finnish Foreign office and incumbent Chairman of the OSCE Alexander Stubb paid a visit to the Uzbek capital. This visit has been the first one made by a European official of that rank since 2005. It appears that this gesture is to demonstrate the West’s eagerness to restore relations with the delinquent republic. Islom Karimov reciprocates its trust – he has been releasing Uzbek human rights activists from prison. These people have criticised his regime after the Andijan: Ahead of Mr Stubb’s arrival a famous human rights activist Mutabar Tadjibaeva was freed. Islom Karimov’s resuming friendly relations with the West can’t but irritate Moscow. The Kremlin fears that the Uzbek leader will be talked into allowing an American military base to be deployed on the territory of his country. It need be said that such a military base was ejected from Uzbekistan several years ago.
The President of Turkmenistan is another problematic partner of Russia. As he came to power, Gurbanguly Berdimuhammedov made no secret of the fact that his land was not going to be Moscow-oriented. Rather, he would conduct a “multi-vector foreign policy.” Mr Berdimuhammedov often demonstrates his determination to fulfil his promise, in particular when it comes to the transportation of carbohydrates. For instance, May 27 he signed a memorandum with the EU Energy Commissioner Andris Piebalgs on rapport and cooperation in the energy sphere between the European Union and Turkmenistan. And on the following day Mr Berdimuhammedov received Richard A. Boucher, Assistant Secretary for Bureau of South and Central Asian Affairs. They also discussed the ways of diversification of the Turkmen energy carriers transportation routes. At the same time Turkmenistan’s leader, who is in charge of oil and gas issues, refused to receive Gazprom CEO Alexey Miller, who visited Ashgabat on Tuesday. So, the tour of Gazprom’s head brought no concrete results.
The West’s desire to persuade the central Asia republics to use carbohydrates transportation routes other than those offered by Russia, can’t help worrying Moscow, which dreams of gaining full control of the Asian oil and gas. And Dmitry Medvedev, a former Gazprom board chairman, might be concerned with the matters, too.
Vladimir Solovyov
All the Article in Russian as of June 06, 2008
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