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Alexander Voloshin Goes to America
// To see old acquaintances on a working vacation
RAO UES of Russia board chairman Alexander Voloshin visited the United States this week. He held eight meetings with high-placed officials of the Bush administration in two days and spoke at an invitation-only dinner at the Carnegie Center. American analysts say that Putin's former chief of staff came to discuss the president's successor. Voloshin himself denies any political subtext to his trip. Kommersant special correspondent Dmitry Sidorov tracked Voloshin on his trip and says that his presence in the U.S. is evidence of a serious crisis in Russian-American relations.
Alexander Voloshin arrived in Washington on Sunday evening. His presence gave rise to numerous rumors. Several experts told Kommersant on condition of anonymity that he was in town at the Kremlin's request to discuss the successor to Russian President Vladimir Putin. Other said that he was “lobbying the interests of Dmitry Medvedev, who is supported by a group headed by Anatoly Chubais.” Voloshin told the newspaper that he “came at the invitation of the Carnegie Center, which has no connection with the Kremlin,” and that he has no intention of lobbying for a presidential successor.
Nonetheless, Kommersant was able to find out that he presented his point of view on that topic at a closed dinner at the Carnegie Institute. That meeting lasted about three hours. The Kommersant correspondent was able to see through the window of the first-floor hall that there were about 20 people present, including the former ambassadors to Russia and Ukraine Jim Collins and Steven Pifer. Fiona Hill, who was recently named CIA national intelligence officer for Russia, was also at that meeting.
Andy Kuchins, director of the Russian program at the Carnegie Center, asked Voloshin about the presidential successor. According to a Kommersant source, his answer was that “Putin is trying to find a composite model, something between Medvedev and Ivanov. But since there is no one like that at hand, there is a likelihood that one of them will advance to the presidency and the other will become prime minister.”
Another source said that Voloshin also noted that “Putin is looking for a fairly young successor, one who is smart and well acquainted with military questions who will take his advice, giving the current president the opportunity to maintain his influence and maybe return after four years.”
Voloshin was unwilling to discuss the Carnegie Center dinner with Kommersant, noting that the event was closed to the public.
Voloshin's close ties with the current Russian administration made it easy for the Carnegie Center to arrange meetings between him and White House officials. Practically no one refused to see him.
U.S. Secretary of State sent Undersecretary for Political Affairs Nicholas Burn and Assistant Secretary of State Daniel Fried in her place with apologies for her busy schedule. Presidential national security advisor Stephen Hadley sent his assistant J.D. Crouch to meet with Voloshin after he was called to Iraq urgently. U.S. Trade Representative Susan Schwab also insisted on a meeting with the one-time “gray cardinal of the Kremlin.”
Sources say that Crouch wanted to find out whom in Moscow it was possible to have a normal conversation with and Schwab wanted to know who could influence the difficult WTO negotiations. Schwab told Voloshin of the negative role Agriculture Minister Alexey Gordeev and the agricultural lobby were playing in the negotiations.
Voloshin was more than an hour late for his meeting with Schwab. Burns and Fried were responsible for that, as was Voloshin's cellular phone, which was lost and subsequently found in Fried's office. Fried was interested in discussing the Russian-Georgian conflict with Voloshin.
Sources say that Burns wanted to talk with Voloshin about relations between Moscow and Tehran and that Voloshin said that “Moscow is continuing close negotiations with Tehran.” Sources declined to say whether Voloshin mentioned any time limit set by Russia on Iran.
At almost all his meetings in Washington, Voloshin emphasized the U.S.'s debt to Russia, which partially explains the poor relations between the countries at present. “We make claims over bilateral relations, and they make claims against us about internal affairs,” Voloshin commented to Kommersant. He added that “the American political elite got very drunk at the funeral for the USSR and still has a hangover.”
Sources say that Voloshin read off a list of good deeds the Kremlin has done the White House, which included closing Russian military bases in Cuba and Vietnam, giving its approval of temporary U.S. military bases in Central Asia and intelligence aid in Afghanistan.
In exchange, the Kremlin is expecting U.S. President George W. Bush to keep his promise to cancel the Jackson-Vanik amendment and sign the protocol for Russia's accession to the WTO. Sources say that Voloshin “understands the difficulties that President Bush has encountered in keeping those promises, but he counters that he shouldn't have made them then.”
The president's main problem is that the Congress has to approve the cancellation of the Jackson-Vanik amendment and the WTO protocol, if it should be signed. But if the president cannot achieve that now, while there is a Republican majority in Congress, it will only be harder if Democrats, who take a harsher stand on Russia, get the upper hand in the legislature after this month's elections, noted one Congressional staffer. Voloshin knows that and has suggested that “when the Democrats come in, relations between Washington and Moscow will get even worse.”
Voloshin's visit is already evidence of a crisis in Russian-American relations. Kommersant sources comment that the great demand for Voloshin's time was caused by the absence of real contacts between Moscow and Washington. Effective working contacts and information exchanges on the level of the presidential administration, which existed several years ago, have been severed. One person commented that “Voloshin is a unwitting political tourist because, except for meetings between Bush and Putin, there is no effective ties between the White House and Kremlin.”
Dmitry Sidorov
All the Article in Russian as of Nov. 03, 2006
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