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The United Nations Needs a Leader
// Asia and Eastern Europe Battle for the General Secretary's Seat
Today in New York the UN Security Council will begin the process of choosing a new general secretary for the United Nations. The choice of Kofi Annan's successor, promise those within the organization, will be the most transparent in the organization's history. However, the selection of the next general secretary will probably be fraught with tension: the US and China are insisting on their candidates, and neither has any intention of backing down.
Rotation or No Rotation
According to the UN charter, the general secretary is nominated by the UN General Assembly (GA). Since the Assembly's 61st session begins on Tuesday, the organization should have a new leader within the next few weeks. However, in practice, the opinion of the General Assembly means next to nothing. It is written in the charter that candidates for general secretary of the GA are recommended by the Security Council. This has usually meant that the member countries of the Security Council choose a suitable candidate to present to the GA, which then rubber-stamps the selection of the proffered candidate. Voting begins in the Security Council today.
The tenure of Kofi Annan, who has held the post of UN general secretary since 1996, will end on December 31 of this year. A native of Ghana, Mr. Annan has been general secretary for two terms, and although there are no limits formally specified in the UN charter, everyone knows that it is time for him to depart. The process of selecting his successor has been going on for almost an entire year by now, and so far no decisions have been made: those involved have not been able to find a suitable candidate, or even decide on how to look for one.
An unwritten law governing the selection of a general secretary suggests that the position rotate among the different regions of the world. The two most recent general secretaries (the Ghanaian Kofi Annan and Boutros Boutros-Ghali, an Egyptian) were from Africa. Before that, three general secretaries came from Europe, and there has been one representative each from South America and Asia. But although the Peruvian Javier Perez de Cueller led the UN relatively long ago, in the 1980s, there has not been an Asian general secretary since the Burmese U Thant in the 1960s. The Asian countries thus feel overlooked by the UN, and most of the UN's bureaucrats and a significant proportion of the organization's member countries, particularly those from Asia and Africa, who make up the majority in the GA, believe that it is time to choose an Asian general secretary.
However, another region is challenging Asia for the title of most slighted by the UN: Eastern Europe. All three of the European secretary generals (the Austrian Kurt Waldheim, the Swede Dag Hammerskjold, and the Norwegian Truygve Lie) were from Western Europe, and some in the UN are claiming that Eastern Europe thus has more of a right to be aggrieved than Asia.
The main lobbyist for Asia is China, whose representatives are making it clear that they will not accept a candidate from any other region. The opposite side is championed by the United States, whose diplomats claim that the principle of rotation by geography is outdated and inappropriate for the selection of the world's most important official. The American ambassador to the UN, John Bolton, has repeatedly maintained that Washington will be led during the selection process exclusively by the personal qualities of the candidates, not by their national origin.
An Asian or a Woman
The trotting out of the candidates for general secretary began early this year. The Asian countries, believing that the general secretary's seat by right should now belong to them, have been campaigning most actively. Almost every Asian country has put forth its own candidate: Thailand's Deputy Prime Minister Surakiart Sathirathai; Sri Lanka's former UN Deputy General Secretary for Disarmament Jayantha Dhanapala; South Korea's Minister of Foreign Affairs Ban Ki-moon; East Timor's Jose Ramos-Horta, winner of the Nobel Peace Prize; India's UN deputy general secretary, the writer Shashi Tharoor; Turkey's Kemal Dervis, the administrator of the UN's development program; Singapore's former Prime Minister Goh Chok Tong; Pakistan's ambassador to Great Britain, Maleeha Lodhi; Afghanistan's Kabul University rector Ashraf Ghani; and Jordan's UN representative, Prince Zeid Hussein.
The abundance of Asians on the list of claimants to the top post in the UN hierarchy does not faze the Europeans. Those from the Old World have found more grounds for their claim to the right to occupy the general secretary's seat: the seven previous leaders of the UN were men, which means that it is time to choose a woman. Three European countries immediately declared their desire to see their female representatives in the top spot. The "first lady of the UN" could be the current presidents of Latvia or Finland, Vaira Vike-Freiberga, or Tarja Halonen, or the former prime minister and former head of the World Health Organization, the Norwegian Gro Harlem Brundtland. Europe's contingent also features such prominent male figures as Alexander Kwasniewski, a former president of Poland, and the former prime minister of Portugal, Antonio Guterres, who is currently the UN High Commissioner for Refuges.
The European idea of putting forward female candidates is seconded by New Zealand, which is offering two women of its own: Prime Minister Helen Clark and former Governor General Sylvia Cartwright. Rounding out the list of nominees are candidates from the Americas, whose candidacy is backed by their exceptional credentials: former Chilean President Ricardo Lagos and his colleague, former US President Bill Clinton. However, although the former boss of the White House is possibly the most popular candidate, he has no chance at the job: by another unwritten UN rule, nationals of countries who have permanent seats on the Security Council cannot hold the post of secretary general.
Most of those on the list of possible candidates have not officially entered the ring. Many are waiting in the wings with the expectation that most of the candidates who have already been put forward will be rejected, signaling the hour of the dark horse candidates. At the moment, only five Asians have officially announced their intention to be considered for the post: Surakiart Sathirathai of Thailand, Jayantha Dhanapala from Sri Lanka, Ban Ki-moon of South Korea, Shashi Tharoor of India, and the Jordanian Prince Zeid Hussien.
America or China
The procedure involved in the upcoming voting will be fairly simple. Countries that sit on the UN Security Council will vote secretly for each of the proffered candidates. The countries with permanent seats, and thus veto power, on the council (America, Russia, China, Great Britain, and France) will vote using red ballots, while the council's temporary members (Argentina, Qatar, Slovakia, Ghana, Congo, Japan, Greece, Tanzania, Denmark, and Peru) will use white ballots. The name of any candidate that garners more than nine votes in favor and who does not receive any "red votes" against will be recommended to the UN General Assembly for a vote. But it is unlikely that it will be that simple.
The candidates will start the struggle for the coveted seat at the opening session of the General Assembly on Tuesday. The storminess of the selection process will depend on the deals being made backstage, since it is clear that many countries will refuse to officially put forth their candidates.
Four countries have already announced the beginning of pre-selection campaigns for their candidates and have submitted the required application to the GA's representative ahead of the opening of the session. So far, the official candidates are Surakiart Sathirathai of Thailand, Jayantha Dhanapala of Sri Lanka, Ban Ki-moon of South Korea, and Shashi Tharoor of India.
The first mock elections were held in the Security Council in the middle of July. Each of the Council's fifteen members gave their opinions concerning each of the candidates, though they did so anonymously – both the permanent and temporary members used white ballots. Only four out of the five current candidates took part in that vote: the Jordanian Prince Zeid Hussein announced his candidacy later.
The lead was taken by the South Korean Foreign Minister, Ban Ki-moon (12 votes for, 1 against, with two countries abstaining). In second place was Kofi Annan's current deputy, Shashi Tharoor (10, 2, 3), while Sathirathai and Dhanapala received 7 and 5 "yes" votes, respectively – clearly not enough to be elected. By the results of this election, the South Korean candidate could be considered the clear favorite. However, again, it is not that simple. According to sources in diplomatic circles, the single vote against him was cast by John Bolton, the US representative in the Council. Mr. Bolton made it clear during the vote that he disapproved of all of the options, and it is possible that this extends to any Asian candidate. If that is true and Washington's position does not change, then Mr. Bolton will be in a position to disrupt the voting with a veto of all of the Asian candidates. In the opinion of diplomats, the single Asian candidate that the US would consider approving is the Jordanian, Prince Zeid Hussein. But he has nothing in common with the other countries in the Asian region, and everyone remembers that an Arab, the Egyptian Boutros Boutros-Ghali, held the position of general secretary not long ago. Finally, Prince Zeid is not very popular in Beijing.
Russia could wedge itself into the squabble between the US and China, where it would most likely take China's side. The Eastern European candidates that Washington is lobbying for, such as Vaira Vike-Freiberga or Alexander Kwasniewski, are absolutely unacceptable to Moscow. The Kremlin, which has never found a common language with them as the leaders of their respective countries, considers them anti-Russian and will without a doubt veto them if they are put forward as candidates.
Mikhail Zygar
All the Article in Russian as of Sep. 14, 2006
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