Leaders of self-proclaimed republics Igor Smirnov (Transdniestria), right, Sergey Bagapsh (Abkhazia), center, and Eduard Kokoity (South Ossetia), left, have decided on the Kosovo-Montenegro variant.
Photo: Dmitry Lebedev
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Acting Independently
// Transdniestria and South Ossetia want to be free to join Russia
South Ossetian President Eduard Kokoity signed an order yesterday designating November 12 to hold a referendum on the region's independence. A similar referendum will be held in Transdniestria the same week. Besides attaining independence, both unrecognized republics want to unite with Russia. Moscow is encouraging the rebellious regions' independence drives any way it can. It does not intend to recognize those elections, however, since they are useful to Moscow only as a means of pressuring Georgia and Moldova.
Georgia? Never!
South Ossetian President Eduard Kokoity set the date for the referendum on the independence of the unrecognized republic yesterday. Tskhinvali has been threatening Georgia with that referendum all year and now it as decided not to dally any longer. Under the presidential decree, the plebiscite will take place in one month. It will contain a single question: “Do you agree that the Republic of South Ossetia should preserve its current status as an independent state and be recognized by the international community?”
“It is important to hold that referendum right now, when Georgia's aggression is mounting,” South Ossetian Minister of Information Irina Gagloeva told Kommersant. “Tbilisi is using all possible means against us, right up to terrorism and it is slowing down our development. The republic has turned into a besieged fortress and that can't go on. We have appealed to authoritative international organizations hundreds of times, but they are on Georgia's side.” Gagloeva is convinced that the referendum will show everyone the true wishes of the Ossetian people and has no doubt about what the result of the referendum will be. “Let everyone see our answer about the choice for the future. It will be curious to see what the international community says to it, whether it will take the right of the people to self-determination into account or start hammering away about Georgia's territorial integrity again.”
Gagloeva has good reason for her assurance about the success of the event they have thought up. South Ossetia held a referendum in 1992, at the height of the conflict with Georgia, although the question was phrased differently. At that time, it concerned not only the region's independence, but also its subsequent unification with Russia. Ninety percent of the population voted in favor of it. But it had no effect on the fate of the region. Now the word “Russia” is not mentioned in the referendum question, but that doesn't mean that Tskhinvali has changed its mind about unification. “The citizens have already approved unification with Russia once,” noted Gagloeva. So we're not going to ask again. I just want to repeat the words of our president, who has stated repeatedly that he upcoming referendum will confirm the results of the plebiscite of 14 years ago.” Gagloeva said that an independent South Ossetia is the first step toward the strategic goal of unification with Russia. “In our current geopolitical space, it is impossible to speak of full independence for such a small republic. Moreover, our other part, North Ossetia, is part of Russia,” she explained. “I can only say for sure that we want to live without Georgia. South Ossetia will never be part of that country.”
Russia Is Our Goal!
Transdniestria is opening this year's referendum season in unrecognized republics. The last preparations for the vote are being made now in Tiraspol and it will take place next Sunday. There are two questions on the referendum: “Do you support the Transdniestrian Moldovan Republic's course toward independence and subsequent free unification of Transdniestria with the Russian Federation?” and “Do you consider it possible to renounce the independence of the Transdniestrian Moldovan Republic with subsequent unification of Transdniestria with the Republic of Moldova?”
Unification with Russia has been a common topic in Transdniestria this year since Ukraine and Moldova imposed a new customs procedure at the border that seriously impeded Tiraspol's international economic activities. They called it a blockade in Transdniestria and appealed to Moscow for aid. Transdniestrian officials, including President Igor Smirnov, became common visitors to the Russian capital, where they were insistently advised to raise the question of independence.
They brought strategists in from Moscow and, it seems, were overeager. The Moscow lobbyists for Transdniestrian interests are highly dissatisfied with the wording of the referendum questions. “They should have voted on independence and not mixed Russia up in it,” a high-placed Russian politician complained to Kommersant. “They are for unification with us and Moscow will have to react. If we remain silent, it will be taken by everyone as a betrayal. Only an enemy of Transdniestrian independence could write Russia into the question!” Not only that, the wording of the question is an addition irritant to the West. “Everyone would understand about independence – the people's self-determination, period. But they took and spoiled it themselves. Now that referendum is just firing a blank,” the politician continued.
It is unlikely that Transdniestrian authorities have real expectations of change pinned to the referendum. It is much more important to President Smirnov to maintain his grip on power. Yesterday, the Central Elections Committee announced that presidential elections would be held on December 12. Smirnov is using the referendum for his personal political ends. The preparations for the plebiscite give him a reason to appear in public more often than other politicians. Smirnov repeats frequently in all his speeches that “the goal of Transdniestria is full integration into the economy and life of the Russian Federation.” That claims gains him big political points, since most Transdniestrians support integration with Russia.
It's Not Binding on Us!
Moscow has used the unrecognized republics to advance its interests more than once, especially when it needed to apply pressure on Tbilisi or Chisinau. As Georgia and Moldova turned their attention to the West, South Ossetia, Abkhazia and Transdniestria became pressure points for them. Previously, the Kremlin had given the regimes in the unspoken support, but recently Russia has publicly taken their side. Now Moscow is encouraging the breakaway republics' strivings for independence. Russian diplomats have taken Kosovo as the defense for their position, and now Montenegro as well, and Tiraspol, Tskhinvali and Sukhumi have taken those examples to heart.
Unlike the others, Abkhazia is not places any particular hopes in Moscow. “We voted for our independence in November 1999,” Abkhazian Foreign Minister Sergey Shamba told Kommersant. “We can consider any model for coexistence with Georgia or Russia, but it will only be an interstate agreement.”
It is completely obvious that the referenda are most needed by the Kremlin for psychological pressure on the Georgian and Moldovan authorities. And it looks as though Moscow will not move from those games to more serious action. “Well, there'll be referenda and some sort of results. But they're not law, so they don't threaten anyone,” Andrey Kuznetsov, deputy head of the Russian Foreign Ministry's press and information department, told Kommersant. “We are bound to react to the fact that they made some decision there. The referendum has no legal consequences.”
Vladimir Solovyev
All the Article in Russian as of Sep. 12, 2006
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