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The Evil You Know
// The price of the question
It's not hard to guess what CIS country the latest event in Georgia will have the greatest resonance in. It was clear as soon as the news of the first arrests was received and the ominous phrase “attempted coup d'etat” was heard. That country is Russia, of course. Why? No matter what you make of the events in Tbilisi, they are taking place thousands of kilometers from Moscow. And they are a domestic affair, a domestic quarrel, if you like. What does Russian policy have to do with it?
Within hours of reports of “suppressing the opposition,” in Tbilisi Russian Duma members, fresh from summer vacation, were discussing Georgia with a passion that parliamentarians in other countries save for crises in their own countries. “A witch hunt… suppression of political freedoms… the degeneration of a regime that came to power with democratic slogans…” How long has it been since such things were heard in the Duma? But don't worry. Nothing in the Duma has changes over the summer. They were talking about Georgia.
It is not surprising that they were so quick to spot the specter of Moscow and suggested that Russian special services were involved in coup attempt. By trying to support the Georgian opposition morally, at a minimum, Moscow is providing them with a mixed blessing. It's very simple. The more accusatory the statements about Saakashvili are in Moscow, the more he can play on the “Russian threat” before the West and his own people. It's one of the few ploys he has left. Thus its support for politicians like Igor Giorgazde, whom Moscow considers practically the main Georgian opposition leader, not only weakens his position, it strengthens Saakashvili's. Because only Moscow can believe that Giorgadze is a real alternative to Saakashvili in Georgia.
It is a fact that things are not going well for Saakashvili and discontent is growing in Georgian politics. Given the relations between Saakashvili and Moscow, the misfortune of the leader f the Revolution of the Roses cannot but cause satisfaction for some in the Russian capital. It couldn't be otherwise. Moscow reacted too painfully to the first of the velvet revolutions in the former Soviet Union. It was a fantasy to think that the change in political leadership that came to a head in Georgia and the new power would be unfailingly pro-Russian because that's what we wanted. If Saakashvili does not hold out, we may come to wish he had.
Sergey Strokan
All the Article in Russian as of Sep. 07, 2006
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