Playing Against the Rules
The Kremlin is celebrating one foreign policy victory in the CIS after another. Kiev surrendered last week. In Ukraine, Russia’s dear friend, Viktor Yanukovich made a dazzling comeback to power, received congratulations from Vladimir Putin and announced that his first trip as Ukraine’s prime minister will be to Moscow. One week later, good news came from the Moldovan-Russian front. The three-year confrontation between Moscow and Chisinau is over. Moldova’s president has arrived to make it up with his Russian counterpart.
Russia launched hostilities three years ago after Chisinau declined to settle the Transdniestrian issue in compliance Moscow’s plan. Russian declared alls possible kinds of war on Moldova – informational, trade, gas and even wine ones. The Communist Voronin would not give in. He managed to resist even in the crucial moment of the parliamentary election last year when Moscow tried hard to influence the vote.
These days, Voronin invited himself to the meeting with Vladimir Putin when nearest election is far away, and nothing seems to be in his way. It may look like a capitulation from the outside. Voronin first went to see how the ground lies. He came to the CIS informal summit in Moscow in July and gave a kind of appeal to Putin. Kremlin sources say that the Moldovan leader promised solemnly to be friends with the great Russia. After the crisis in Ukraine had been settled, the Kremlin thought that the time was ripe – they agreed to receive the Moldovan petitioner. Rules of hostilities say it is the loser who begs.
Vladimir Voronin has always been a rational politician. He has always needed Russia. The political career of the Moldovan president has closely linked to the Kremlin. He rose to power in 2001 using pro-Russian slogans. Two years away from it, he pushed away Moscow’s hand and remained in power in 2005 thanks to it.
Having quarreled with Russia, Voronin has secured a place in the club of the great revolutionaries of former Soviet republics, along with Viktor Yushchenko and Mikhail Saakashvili. During the Orange Revolution in 2004 Chisinau made the right evaluation of the situation as he supported it and denied recognizing Viktor Yanukovich’s victory in the presidential election. President Yushchenko thanked Moldovan authorities by blocking flows of smuggled goods at the border with Transdniestria.
Vladimir Voronin was very careful in his attempts to seem a West-loyal leader. He has never made any anti-Russian statements like this Georgian counterpart did. With no voiced criticism against Moscow the Moldovan president has some space to act on. This is the space he can use if, say, Viktor Yanukovich reminds Moldova of supporting Viktor Yushchenko in 2004.
In fact, what Moscow views as Chisinau’s capitulation is rather an armistice which will not prevent Voronin from manoeuvering again.
Vladimir Solovyev, columnist
All the Article in Russian as of Aug. 09, 2006
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