The president of Uzbekistan Islam Karimov (at the left) and Minister for Foreign Affairs of Russia Sergey Lavrov (on the right) at the Tajik President's residence during official visit of the President of Russia to Tajikistan.
Photo: Dmitry Azarov
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Sergey Lavrov Follows Footsteps of Condoleezza Rice
// In attempt to reinforce Southern Russian borders
Today, the head of the Russian Foreign Ministry Sergey Lavrov started his trip to Central Asia, during which he is going to visit Turkmenia and Uzbekistan. The negotiations of the Russian minister in Ashgabat and Tashkent, which are happening a week after the Asian tour of U.S. State Secretary Condoleezza Rica, have important meaning for the Kremlin. Moscow demonstrates resolve not to let Washington take an initiative in the fight for the zones of the influence in Central Asia by tying closer to itself the states, which dropped out from the orbit of American policy.
Our Answer to Washington
The working visits of Sergey Lavrov to Turkmenia and Uzbekistan will become in the way an “asymmetrical answer” of Moscow for the recent visit of Condoleezza Rice in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzia and Turkmenia. Rice demonstratively excluded from her trip Tashkent, with which the relationship fell to the lowest point after the Andijan events. American Secretary of State did not plan to visit Turkmenia either because of its “active neutrality” position and not so-agreeable authoritarian government.
In that sense, Lavrov’s visit to Ashgabat and Tashkent represents a sharp contrast between Russian and American policy in the region. However, the officials in Moscow and Washington prefer not to accent the differences. For instance, the Foreign Ministry’ Spokesman Mikhail Kamynin, while speaking about the goals of the minister’s visit, pointed out that Moscow give big meaning to the political cooperation with Ashgabat and Tashkent. “Russia highly appreciates the relationship with Turkmenistan, giving a serious meaning to the development of the mutually profitable cooperation in political, trade-economic and humanitarian and other spheres,” said the Foreign Ministry’ Spokesman. The second point of destination of Sergey Lavrov is Tashkent. This visit, according to Kamynin, is considered to be a “continuation of the series of contacts which were conducted by the sides in 2004 -2005 on different height levels within the Russian-Uzbek political dialog.”
Kamynin also said that Lavrov during the visit to Ashgabat will hold negotiations with the President Saparmurat Niyazov and with Turkmen Foreign Minister Rashid Meredov. The same scheme would be used in Tashkent, where Russian Foreign Minister will meet with President Islam Karimov and Lavrov’s Uzbek colleague Eler Ganiev.
Neutrality Does Not Prevent Friendship
During the negotiations with Turkmen leader Niyazov Sergey Lavrov has to accomplish several difficult tasks. Moscow wants to be sure that Turkmenia will not let foreign bases on its territory. Despite Condoleezza Rice’s reassurances that the United States is not trying to increase its military presence in the region, Moscow is still afraid that in perspective this presence can “infiltrate” into Turkmenia, which so far pronounces its neutrality in the external policy. The most difficult task for Lavrov would be to persuade Niyazov to include Turkmenia into the Caspian Naval-Military Group of operative response – Casfor. The initiative to create the group from the countries, that border the Caspian Sea was proposed by Moscow in the past July. The main goal of the organization is constant military monitoring of the Caspian Sea by the group members. If this idea would be realized, it would provide Moscow a constant military presence in this region. In the same time, compared with Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, and Iran, Turkmenia remains full of doubts about this Russian initiative. Let’s remind that Turkmenistan already announced its sovereign rights over the part of the Caspian Sea and even started to arrest foreign vessels in its “territorial waters.” In this case, Lavrov will try to prove to Niyazov that Turkmenian neutrality would not suffer from the participation in Casfor, because Casfor is not a military bloc and has only task of “preventing new risks and threats” in the zone of the group responsibility.
The discussion in Ashgabat about the future of the Confederation of Independent States would be also an attempt to adopt Turkmenia’s neutrality to the interests of Russian regional policy. After Turkmenia backed up from the full membership to the position of associated member of the CIS, Lavrov would try to persuade Ashgabat confirm the legal base of its “new membership.” That would allow Russia to attach more firmly Turkmenia to CIS (even as “associated member”) and would not let this Central Asian state to be left to itself with unknown for Moscow consequences.
When Lavrov discusses economic bloc of questions, he will have to persuade Saparmurat Niyazov of the necessity to hold on to the conditions of Russian-Turkmen long-term agreement about the natural gas, which was signed on April 10, 2003. On his turn, Niyazov would most likely try to make Russia pay higher prices for Turkmen gas, explaining that with overall higher world prices for the energy resources.
Moscow and Tashkent Are Brothers Forever
The key task for Sergey Lavrov in Uzbekistan would be accomplishing the Kremlin’s idea of turning Tashkent into a full-scale strategic partner for Russia in the region. The Russian Foreign Minister would have to finally persuade Islam Karimov in the necessity of signing a special agreement, which would legalize the alliance between two states.
According to Kommersant information, the project of the agreement is being currently worked on in Moscow. The agreement might include the chapter about mutual military help in case of the external threats.
Russia has chosen a perfect moment to turn its relations with Tashkent, which has been rejected by the West, into the unbreakable union. Lavrov might remind Karimov about how Moscow persistently defends Tashkent against the Washington, by proving toPresident George Bush that there is no alternative to Islam Karimov – if he would leave, the Islamic extremists could seize the power in the country. According to the Kommersant information, the idea about counter productivity of Karimov regime’s removal was relayed to Condoleezza Rice during her short stop in Moscow on the way back from Central Asian tour.
Moreover, Russian Foreign Minister has another task -- to lure Islam Karimov’s Uzbekistan into the Organization of Collective Security Agreement (OCSA). The logic of the Russian side is simple: after Tashkent’s “divorce” with the USA and European Union, it does not have a choice. Moscow hopes that Uzbekistan will submit the petition about joining the OCSA in the nearest time.
Sergey Strokan
All the Article in Russian as of Oct. 20, 2005
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