Beneficial Sanctions
The most terrible thing has happened. When there was a presidential elections almost a year ago in Moldavia, only the President Voronin and his close surrounding were not panicking from the thought of the worsening relationship with Russia.
All people, with whom I talked, were afraid of Russian economic sanctions. President Voronin told me in an interview that if Russia will decide not to buy Moldavian wine anymore, thus it will punish its own entrepreneurs, because the majority of Moldavian wineries belong to Russians. People on the street were saying: “If Russia will not buy our wine, we will die from starvation.” President Voronin was saying that even if Russia would attempt to sell natural gas to Moldavia for European prices, then Chisinau would ask Europe for a credit to buy this gas or ask Europe to sell gas for lower prices. And people on the street were saying: “If Russia will raise the prices for the gas, we will freeze in the winter time.”
And the most terrible thing happened. Russia does not buy Moldavian wine, and soon might increase the gas prices for Moldavia. The things, which all Moldavia was afraid of, have happened. However, the wait for the economic sanctions is much scarier than the sanctions themselves. In a political sense, the threat of the sanctions is much more effective weapon than the sanctions themselves.
It already has happened with Baltic countries. If almost 15 years ago Russia did not impose sanctions, then the Lithuanian, Estonian, and Latvian economies would be still attached to Russia. And Moscow would have much more leverage in the fight for the Russian minorities’ rights in these countries. However, Russia did impose the sanctions and Baltic people went through several unhappy years. However, they did change their economic orientation to the West. Now they have predictable and polite Europe as the partner, and not spontaneous and sometimes rude Russia.
Moldavia will also see several not quite happy years. However, Moldavia will not notice them too much because there were no plentiful years in the memory of the economically active generation. Moldavia will change its economy. And in some point, not only the president and some high ranking officials, but also simple people would understand that Russia is not the only country in the world. Moreover, I suspect that hardship in the wine industry will make Moldavia to invite European enologists and to produce finally good competitive wines, which could be sold not only in Russia, but all over the world. And the whole world, by looking at the failed sanctions against Moldavia, would learn that there is no reason to be afraid of Russia.
Valery Panyushkin, columnist
All the Article in Russian as of Oct. 14, 2005
|
