Free Woman in Central Asia
// The US State Secretary goes to unite Central Asia
Yesterday, US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice will start her first trip to Central Asia. During three days she will visit Kyrgyzia, Afghanistan, Kazakhstan and Tajikistan. Because the US Congress is planning to introduce sanctions against Tashkent, Uzbekistan was demonstratively excluded from the program of the visit. During the visit, Rice is supposed to resolve two questions most important for the United States. First, to find a place for a military base, which is withdrawing from Uzbekistan. Second, to persuade local leaders to create regional organizations without Russia, China and Iran.
Basic Element
Yesterday, when the United States was celebrating the state holiday, Columbus Day, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice flew out from Washington to her first trip to Central Asia. The main goal of the visit is to re-open this region for America. Three years ago the US was effectively building relationships with Central Asian countries. After the terrorists' acts of Sept. 11, these countries joined the anti-terror coalition and Uzbekistan together with Kyrgyzia allowed on its territory the US military bases.
The crisis for the US relationship with the countries of the region came this summer, when the countries that are members of the Shanghai Organization of Cooperation demanded the USA establish the exact timetable for withdrawing the American military bases. According to a Kommersant source in the State Department, Washington is sure that this statement was made after Beijing and Moscow’s initiative, which pressured Tashkent and Bishkek.
The Americans were able to settle only part of the problem. After Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld’s visit in the region in July, Kyrgyz President Kurman Bakiev stopped insisting on the speedy Manas base withdrawal. However, the relationship with Bishkek and other countries of the region remains unclear. During her trip, Rice has to develop a new system of relationships with Washington partners that once were complacent.
The military base issue does not belong directly to the State Department competency -- it's the priorities of the Pentagon and its chief Donald Rumsfeld. However, Assistant Secretary of State Dan Fried during a briefing last Friday did not deny that this issue would be discussed during Rice's trip: "This inter-department issue that would show the coordination" between the State Department and Pentagon. The Secretary of State will start her visit in Kyrgyzia, where she will present all the positives for keeping the military base in airport Manas. The last stop of the visit would be Tajikistan: that is probably where the US wants to establish the base, which is being withdrawn from Uzbekistan. The question of placing an American base in Tajikistan was on the agenda of the negotiations between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Tajik President Emomali Rakhmonov last week in Moscow. The Russian leader was persuading his Tajik colleague not to agree to the US proposal. Rice would be insisting on the opposite.
The Flexible Democracy
The internal political crises in Central Asia are worrying the USA not less than the questions about the military bases. For that reason, Rice promises to talk about the democratization with Central Asian leaders. For instance, when in June she was making a similar trip in the Middle East, the subject of human rights was prevalent in her statements. Then, in Amman and Cairo, she shocked the local political elite by saying that the US would not support anymore authoritarian regimes because they are unable to provide stability and only produce extremists.
Most likely, Rice would not repeat the same thesis into the faces of the presidents of Tajikistan and Kazakhstan. As Dan Fried stated last week, the United States will try to look realistically on the capability of the countries of the region and will not criticize them for every anti-democratic step. "The art of diplomacy is to choose certain principles for ourselves, hold on to them, but to use them only in the situations when it makes sense," Fried said.
Such sincere confession from the Assistant Secretary of State means that during the Central Asian trip, Condoleezza Rice would restrain herself from direct criticism of the authorities. For instance, last Wednesday, right after the trip's announcement, the court process over Tajik political opponent -- leader of Democratic Party of Tajikistan Mahmadruzi Iskandarov -- was finished in Dushanbe. Iskandarov was going to challenge President Rahmonov on the next year's elections. The opponent was sentenced to 23 years of prison. The Tajik opposition asked Rice to raise the issue about the political prosecution during her negotiations with President Rahmonov. However, taking in consideration the US interest to Tajikistan, the State Secretary is unlikely to actively defend the opposition.
Most likely, the USA will show its support to Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbev as well before the coming president elections. In the State Department briefing in the end of last week, Josette Shiner, Under Secretary for Economic, Business, and Agricultural Affairs, who will accompany Rice to Central Asia, hinted that Washington could help Astana to join the World Trade Organization. However, she added that in order to do so "thousands of legal acts in Kazakhstan are needed to be reformed."
The main target for the criticism of Rice during her visit would be Uzbekistan. The decision to exclude Tashkent from the trip's itinerary was another slap in the face of Islam Karimov. According to Dan Fried, the main reason for the "wise decision not to visit Uzbekistan" became "a concern with events in Andijan, and also the pressure of Uzbek government for non-government organization, closing the exchange programs and overall climate of fear in the country." A week ago, the Congress already received a bill demanding to raise criminal charges against Islam Karimov in international court and
imposing sanctions for the regime. Then the Congress decided not to pay Tashkent a debt for using the territory for a military base in Khanabad. Rice’s absence clearly shows that the US Administration approves the resolve of the lawmakers to punish Uzbekistan and that the pressure on the regime would be growing.
Response for EurAsEC
According to the opinion of American analysts, the trip of Condoleezza Rice should become some sort of response of Washington for the arrival of four Central Asian leaders last week to celebrate the birthday of Vladimir Putin as well as joining of Organization of Central Asian Cooperation to EurAsEC. Also, right before the visit, American diplomats were insisting that they are not concerned at all by Moscow’s close ties with republics of Central Asia. They were saying that the US does not intend to fight with Russia for the regional influence. "We do not see Central Asia as a subject of big game," Dan Fried was explaining. The expression "big game", according to the American journalists, was remanding the title of the famous book of Peter Hopkirk, which was telling about the rivalry between Great Britain and Russia for the influence in Central Asia in the beginning of last century.
Fried says that the US has its own interests in the region, which could be commensurate with Russian interests. For instance, the Assistant Secretary pointed out "the fight against Islamic extremism and drug trade." The leading expert of the Heritage foundation Ariel Cohen during the conversation with Kommersant correspondent suggested: "The interests of the USA in the Central Asia are classical geo-politics, where the bets are high. Beside the oil aspect, which is also a concern of Russia, China and India, the Central Asian countries border with Iran and Pakistan, where there is a growth of anti-American sentiments. The efforts of Rice to reinforce American interests should be coming from the idea that the US policy is a two-way street. We have to hear, and not only to lecture: to give, and not only to demand."
It is possible that during the current trip of Condoleezza Rice the Central Asian republics would hear an attractive offer, which was hinted at by Assistant Secretary Fried. The US already for some time is thinking about the creation of a Central Asian organization without participation of Russia, China and Iran. During the Rice's visit preparation, Josette Shiner stated that in all four countries, including Afghanistan "there would be discussions of the regional agreements about the trade." In fact, it says about possibility of the lifting legal and tax barriers for trade among the different countries of the Central Asian region. Especially, Under Secretary Shiner pointed out, in the importance of free export for the energy resources, which would benefit Kazakhstan – the largest oil exporter in Central Asia. One of the Kommersant’s sources in Washington suggested that “the administration possibly is trying to create economic and political alternatives to such structures like SOC and EurAsEC,” because it is not intended to give up the region to the influence of Moscow and Beijing.
Dmitry Sidorov, Washington; Mikhail Zygar’
All the Article in Russian as of Oct. 11, 2005
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