A Future Queen
Zbigniew Brzezinski, much as he was unloved here, was an undeniably keen observer. He once compared world politics to a game played on a geopolitical chessboard. That is no less true today. The advances and retreats are thus illustrated and the players are the same as they were 20 years ago (who else is there?). But no always.
Black Russia (black because the first move is America's) is forced into waiting for its opponent, which has the strategic advantage, to make a mistake in order to force it into a multilayered defense before it can win its own place of honor. That place is usually not won, in Iraq, for example, where Russia resisted the military operation to the last. The same thing is happening now in Iran, with Russia trying with all its might to prevent the UN Security Council from becoming involved in the nuclear crisis there. It was the same in the Balkans in the 1990s, it can be recalled.
Why shouldn't the black side image things from the white point of view just once? It could throw caution to the wind and go on the counterattack, maybe remember that, with a little creativity, it is possible to launch an attack with pawns. It is hard not to compare Moscow's attempts in the last few months to force the Americans off the territory of the former Soviet Union with a wild offensive using pawns. Right behind Uzbekistan, we advance Kyrgyzstan and behind Kyrgyzstan Tajikistan. Nearby, we have Kazakhstan, in the capital of which the members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization are signing a threatening ultimatum to Washington. To add to our importance, the figure of the president of China can be seen scurrying around behind our back, and the turban of the prime minister of India, specially invited for the signing ceremony, is glowing in the background. The main thing is to catch the opponent off guard. Alas, our attack in any case will remain just a pawn raid. This is because, no matter what claims to leadership it makes in Central Asia, and how much its neighbors are aware of its size, Uzbekistan was and is a pawn on the world geopolitical stage. It will remain a pawn, too, especially after the direction its relations with the West took after Andijan. Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan do not even merit a mention. They are in no hurry to be wiped off the board either, and so are not eager to make a suicidal attack against the whites. And there are no other black chessmen on the board.
A full-on, head-first, all-out, breakneck pawn attack will not have any decisive effect on the geopolitical chessboard. It will be deflected with ease by the grand master we are playing against. What is Russia counting on then? On a stroke of luck. Maybe one of those pawns will turn into a queen.
Sergey Strokan
All the Article in Russian as of Oct. 06, 2005
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