Tajik President Emomali Rakhmonov has to decide whether to take the road to Moscow or Washington.
Photo: Dmitry Azarov
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Bases of the Argument
// Russia convinces Tajikistan not to let Americans open bases there
Friendship of Nations
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Tajik President Emomali Rakhmonov will hold negotiations today in Moscow. The Kremlin's main goal is to convince its guest from Dushanbe not to allow Washington to locate the military bases it has to remove from Uzbekistan there. Rakhmonov swears that no American soldier will every set foot in his country. But Moscow is worried that Washington, which is well aware of the chronic lack of money that plagues Tajikistan's treasury, will make an offer that is hard to refuse.
Friday, October 7, is the date of the Central Asian Cooperation Organization summit in St. Petersburg, at which, naturally, Rakhmonov will be present. He came a day early, however, to meet with Putin. The Russian president will probably wish Rakhmonov a happy birthday, since his birthday was yesterday, but Rakhmonov will wait a day to wish Putin the same thing, since his birthday is Friday.
Kommersant has learned that Rakhmonov has a birthday present in store for him in Moscow as well. In their negotiations, the presidents are to reach final agreement on a simplified visa procedure, under which Russian and Tajik citizens traveling to each other's countries will need only their internal passports and proof of birth to cross the borders. It is easy to see that that new procedure offers more benefits to Tajiks than to Russians, since tens of thousands of Tajiks travel to Russia to find work.
With that, the pleasantries will cease. The remaining issues on the agenda are more problematic. Moscow has made forcing American military bases out of Central Asia the key point of its policy in the region lately. The bases were needed by Washington for its antiterrorist operations in Afghanistan. Then, just after September 11 of that year, no one could refuse the United States in its “war on international terror.” All the more so since the aid was very well paid for. American bases sprang up in Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan, and a NATO base in Tajikistan. American officials stated repeatedly that the bases would be closed as soon as the situation was brought under control in Afghanistan. Eventually, however, it became clear that the Americans had no intention of leaving the region. This upset Russia, which sees the American presence in Central Asia as a threat to its security.
It was fairly easy to get rid of the American base in Uzbekistan. Uzbek President Islam Karimov, piqued at the U.S. and egged on by Moscow, asked the Americans himself to remove their airbase at Karshi-Khanabad on short warning. Now the Americans are decided where to move that base to, and the Russian are doing everything they can to squeeze the Americans out for good.
Kommersant's information indicates that Moscow considers Tajikistan the weak link in its chain of resistance and, even though Rakhmonov has never wavered in his assurances that he will never allow Americans into his country, Moscow is seriously concerned that he will give in to the temptation. The U.S. is offering Tajikistan $50 million per year for the rental of the base and another $10 million in easy credit that practically never has to be returned. Moreover, the American presence is a “test of democracy” for Tajikistan and would guarantee that no “color” revolution will take place there.
Emissaries from Washington are now frequent visitors in Dushanbe. In July, just after the Americans learned that they would have to close their base in Uzbekistan, Pentagon chief Donald Rumsfeld visited the country. In August, commander of the U.S. Central Command John Abizaid came. Before his flight to Moscow yesterday, Rakhmonov met with U.S. Undersecretary of State Robert Joseph, who is in Dushanbe now. In the course of the negotiations, the Tajik leader made the alarming statement that he was prepared “to develop relations with the U.S. in every way possible and strengthen partnership in all areas.”
Next week, Washington is sending in the heavy artillery. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice is traveling to the region and will visit Dushanbe. Putin's desire to have a talk with Rakhmonov before Rice gets there is completely reasonable. This is all the more so since the Tajik president is not known for the consistency of his positions.
Whimsical Rakhmonov
In the ten-plus years of his presidency, Rakhmonov has changed his foreign policy orientation several times. In the years when he faced armed opposition, he swore allegiance to the West and cursed Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and other Muslim countries for supporting the opposition. After peace was attained in the country, Rakhmonov made an about-face and centered his concentration on the Muslim world. He traveled to Mecca to perform hajj and angry tirades about the falsity of European values became a mainstay of his rhetoric.
The sacrifice wasn't worth it. Tajikistan received no aid from the Muslim countries and Rakhmonov took the terrorist act in the U.S. on September 11, 2001, as signal that it was time to act again, and Tajikistan again became pro-Western, even hosting a NATO base.
Russia all that time was like an unloved but extremely helpful relation to Tajikistan. Russian border guards patrolled the Tajik-Afghan border, and Dushanbe received regular, if not too large, donations from Moscow. Dalliances with the West, especially the U.S., led to a serious chill in Russian-Tajik relations in 2002 and 2003, to the point that Rakhmonov was specially excluded from meetings of the presidents of Russia, Belarus, Ukraine and Kazakhstan in Moscow when the bases of the Single Economic Space were set out.
The U.S. was then concentrating on relations with Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan, and neglecting Tajikistan. In the end, Rakhmonov had to ask to be taken under Russia's wing. Then Moscow forgave Dushanbe its almost $300-million debt and agreed to invest huge sums in the Tajik economy. In return, Moscow was given permission to open a large military base for its 201st Division in Tajikistan. According to Kommersant's information, the Americans would like to open their airbase at Aini, almost adjacent to the Russian base.
Pyrrhic Victory
Russia's chances for victory in the war of words over Tajikistan are not high. Even if the Americans lose this round, Moscow's victory will come at a huge moral cost. As long as the decision on the American base is up in the air, the U.S. will not criticize Tajikistan's human rights record. If the Americans do not get there base in Tajikistan, the West will most likely start reminding Dushanbe of the deterioration of democratic freedoms and persecution of the opposition there.
Moscow is ready to take the Tajik regime as it is. It practically gives it assistance in strangling off the opposition. Last December, leader of the Tajik opposition Democratic Party Makhmadruzi Iskandarov was arrested in Moscow and extradited to Tajikistan. Yesterday, that country's Supreme Court sentenced him to 23 years in prison. The sentence reads in part “Accusations against Makhmadruzi Iskandarov of terrorism, banditry, illegal arms possession and embezzlement of state property in large volumes were fully proven in the course of the preliminary investigation carried out by the state prosecutor.” Human rights activists and independent observers, some in the West, say that the case was fabricated.
Tajikistan will be a detrimental ally for Russia. It will not improve Russia's image abroad. Moscow has recent assembled a whole group of allies with dubious reputations. Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko and Uzbek President Islam Karimov are prominent examples. The Kremlin is obviously consciously encircling itself with odious regimes that have nowhere else to turn. This is at odds with Moscow's claim that it is the driving force behind democratization in the CIS, as it would have the West believe.
Alexander Reutov
All the Article in Russian as of Oct. 06, 2005
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